Research

Cloud-radiative feedbacks

Changes in clouds modulate warming, and are one of the most uncertain aspects of the relationship between emissions and global-mean surface temperature. Our research uses climate models to try to understand and reduce this uncertainty.

Relevant publications

Accepted at Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Preprint

Duffy, M. L., I. R. Simpson, B. Medeiros, J. Zhu, C. S. McCluskey, A. R. Herrington, et al., 2026. Is the high ECS in CESM2 degrading transient climate change projections over the 21st century? Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18, e2025MS004967. link

Wall, C.J., D. Paynter, Y. Qin, M. Debolskiy, M. L. Duffy, T. Michibata, B. M. Duran, N. J. Lutsko, P-L Ma, B. Medeiros, T. Storelvmo, M.Zhao, 2025, Decomposing Cloud Radiative Feedbacks By Cloud-Top Phase, Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0538.
Link

Duran, B.M., C.J. Wall, N.J. Lutsko, P.-L. Ma, Y. Qin, M.L. Duffy, B. Medeiros, T. Michibata, M. Debolski, 2025, A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, DOI: 10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025
Link

Gettelman, A., T. Eidhammer, M.L. Duffy, D. McCoy, C. Song, D. Watson-Parris, 2024, The interaction between climate forcing and feedbacks, JGR Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1029/2024JD040857
Link

Bloch-Johnson, J., M.A.A. Rugenstein, M.J. Alessi, C. Proistosescu, M. Zhao, B. Zhang, A.I.L. Williams, J.M. Gregory, J. Cole, Y. Dong, M.L. Duffy, S.M. Kang, C. Zhou, The Green’s function model intercomparison project (GFMIP) protocol, 2024, JAMES. DOI: 10.1029/2023MS003700
Link

Duffy, M.L., B. Medeiros, A. Gettelman, T. Eidhammer, 2024, Perturbing parameters to understand cloud contributions to climate change, Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0250.1
Link

Duffy, P.B. and M.L. Duffy, 2021, Worst climate outcomes are still possible. Letter, Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.abg2720
Link

Climate and weather extremes

Some of the greatest impacts of climate change lie in the extreme events. Our research studies temperatue and rainfall extremes in climate models.

Relevant Publication

Wehner, M.F., M.L. Duffy, M. Risser, C.J. Paciorek, D.A. Stone, P. Pall, 2024, On the uncertainty of long-period return values of extreme daily precipitation, Frontiers in Climate. DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1343072
Link

The tropical circulation and rainfall

The response of the tropical atmosphere to warming is very uncertain, with large intermodel spread. Our research seeks to identify sources of intermodel spread and ultimately improve future projections of the tropical climate.

Relevant Publications

Duffy, M.L. and P.A. O’Gorman, 2023, Intermodel spread in Walker circulation responses linked to spread in in moist stability and radiation responses, JGR Atmospheres. DOI: 10.1029/2022JD037382
Link

Duffy, M.L., P.A. O’Gorman, L.E. Back, 2020, Importance of Laplacian of low-level warming for the response of precipitation to climate change over tropical oceans, Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0365.1
Link

Who does the geoscience research?

Persistent biases in who does the geoscience research inhibits progress. Our research seeks to understand gender and racial diversity amongst US geoscience faculty.

Relevant Publications

Duffy, M.L., L.Y. Barnes, C.D. Wirz, M.I. Ranganathan, M.A. Freilich, E.M. Freese, E. Lalk, J. Wilcots, 2025, Factors influencing underrepresented geoscientists’ decision to accept or decline a faculty job offer in the US, Nature Communications Earth and Environment, DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02052-3
Link

Ranganathan, M.I., E. Lalk, E.M. Freese, M.A. Freilich, J. Wilcots, M.L. Duffy, R. Shivamoggi, 2021, Trends in the representation of women amongst US geoscience faculty from 1999 to 2020: The long road towards gender parity. AGU Advances. DOI: 10.1029/2021AV000436
Link